53The Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will announce its last interest rate decision of 2026 on 19 November. The repo rate stands at 7.25% after a 25 basis point increase on 23 September, and banks have charged a prime rate of 10.75% since 25 September. The Bank has not yet confirmed a time. In September the announcement came at 15:00.
What do economists expect on 19 November?
No clear consensus yet. Business News South Africa reported on 28 October that Nedbank expects another 25 basis point hike to 7.50%, while Investec and Old Mutual Wealth lean away from one. Old Mutual Wealth's Izak Odendaal called further hikes "probably unnecessary and unlikely". Johann Els of PSG told Business Day he sees no need for more hikes for now.
The Reserve Bank's own September projections have the policy rate roughly flat for the rest of this year, although the Bank also tested scenarios with one or two more increases. We could not find published forward rate pricing or a fresh economist survey for this meeting, so treat all of this as opinion, not a forecast.
What is inflation doing?
Stats SA reported on 21 October that consumer inflation rose to 4.5% in September from 4.4% in August, a little below what the market had pencilled in. October is the print to watch. Petrol went up sharply at the start of the month, and Els expects headline inflation near 5%. Nedbank puts the peak at 5.7% in October. Stats SA is due to publish the October figure on 18 November, the day before the MPC announces.
How much would a rate change cost on a loan or a bond?
Less than the headlines suggest. Over twenty years it adds up, though. The bond below is R1 000 000 over 20 years at prime. The loan is R100 000 over 60 months at an assumed 25% a year, purely an illustration, since lenders price each loan individually. Fees and credit life insurance are left out.
| Scenario | Prime | Bond instalment (R1 000 000, 20 years) | Loan rate (assumed) | Loan instalment (R100 000, 60 months) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hold | 10.75% | R10 152 | 25.00% | R2 935 |
| Hike of 0.25 points | 11.00% | R10 322 (+R170) | 25.25% | R2 950 (+R15) |
| Cut of 0.25 points | 10.50% | R9 984 (-R168) | 24.75% | R2 920 (-R15) |
A variable-rate bond follows prime, so the change usually shows from the next instalment. A fixed-rate loan does not move. Not sure which you have? Your credit agreement says.
What happens to the legal interest caps?
Under the National Credit Act regulations, the maximum rate on unsecured credit such as personal loans is the repo rate plus 21 percentage points. At 7.25% that is 28.25% a year. A hike would lift the ceiling to 28.50%, a cut would lower it to 28.00%. A cap is a ceiling, not an offer, and many lenders charge less.
| Credit type | Hold | Hike of 0.25 points | Cut of 0.25 points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unsecured credit (repo + 21%) | 28.25% | 28.50% | 28.00% |
| Short-term credit | 5% a month | 5% a month | 5% a month |
The short-term cap is a fixed monthly percentage, 5% on a first loan and 3% on later loans in the same calendar year, so the repo rate does not change it.
What can you do before the announcement?
Nothing needs doing in a hurry. With a variable-rate bond, it helps to know your instalment at 11.00%. Thinking of borrowing? Compare the full cost and confirm the lender is registered with the National Credit Regulator. Our prime rate guide shows where prime stands, the repo rate explained covers how the two are linked, and the lender directory lists registered providers and their terms.
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